A Report On Second Quarter Data - 1594 Words

Second Quarter Data Assumes Extra Importance Most economic commentators and forecasters are expecting a disappointing headline figure for US Q1 real GDP growth, despite good weather during the first two months of the year. According to the Atlanta Fed’s latest weekly live reading, the US economy will grow only +0.5%, significantly below the Blue Chip Consensus estimate of +1.4%. Inventory liquidation is forecast to be a significant drag, shaving -0.8 percentage points off headline growth. Their GDP estimates have been steadily declining since late-January as more economic data has been released. The apparent failure of the economy to accelerate in reaction to the bounce in business optimism following the Presidential Election may scare†¦show more content†¦During recent years, there has been an almighty game of chicken played out between bond investors and the Fed. The former group have embraced a secular stagnation thesis of slow economic growth and low inflation. Meanwhile, the FOMC has been forced to accept s ome of these conclusions by reducing their estimate of the neutral federal funds rate to 3%. Economic Dynamics: Not Much Has Changed Since November While it is easy to be impressed by the sharp recovery in business optimism since the Presidential Election, the reality is that economic conditions have not really changed that dramatically. Moreover, the failure to replace the Affordable Health Care Act has been a brutal reminder that major legislative changes require bipartisanship. The most crucial component of President Trump’s election agenda is tax reform and failure to deliver could have a significant bearing on risk-taking in the US economy. Thus, should the economic deceleration in Q1 turn out to be more sinister, then the urgency to enact tax cuts will commensurately increase. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin originally targeted August as the most likely point to witness tax reform being passed. Much will, however, depend on whether the current softness in the auto sector and retail sales intensifies further, along with the response of the Fed. This backdrop simply reinforces the importance of Q2 data for both monetary an d fiscal policy. TheShow MoreRelatedSwot Analysis : The Hack Began On Black Friday 2013 Essay743 Words   |  3 Pages2013. Because this falls within Target’s fourth quarter 2013 period—between November 2, 2013, and February 1, 2014—financial analysis is gathered from information provided in Target’s 2013 quarterly reports, 2012 and 2013 annual report. The analysis will be divided into four segments. The first is an analysis of the company’s quarterly revenues and net earnings and how it measures year-over-year. The second relates to the costs associated with the data breach. 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